Future business activity in U.S. hotels remained unchanged in February, according to the latest reading of the U.S. hotel industry leading indicator (HIL). Set to equal 100 in 2005, HIL held steady in February at 112.9 percent.
HIL posted a positive rate of 2.6 percent in February, following a positive rate of 2.9 percent in January. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of three percent the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.
The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term a statistical prediction made by HIL registered eight percent in February, compared to the 6.8 percent reported in January. When this recession-warning gauge increases to 50 percent for more than three months, HIL predicts that the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.
“HIL has stalled for two months in a row and the risk for an upcoming recession increased,” says Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com. “The leading nature of the HIL shows an upcoming stagnation or a soft patch in business activity for the hotel industry in the spring and early summer.”
