Nearly 3 million of the United States’ 4.8 million hotel rooms, or 62.5 percent, will be occupied on any given night in 2012, according to the Hotel Horizons report from PKF Hospitality Research. Occupancy levels represent a 5.6 increase over pre-recession 2007 figures.
Based on performance data through June of 2012 and Moody’s Analytics’ July 2012 domestic economic forecast, PKF-HR is forecasting that RevPAR in the U.S. will increase by 6.7 percent in 2012. “The main reason for the improved annual forecast is the stronger-than-expected performance of the market in the second quarter of the year,” says R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR. During this time frame, STR reported that the “RevPAR for U.S. hotels grew at a pace of 7.9 percent, a full two percentage points greater than our forecast of 5.9 percent. Robust demand growth was the primary reason for the superior gain in RevPAR.”
Along with its improved forecast for RevPAR, PKF-HR now is projecting unit-level net operating income (NOI) to increase by 12.6 percent in 2012, up from its June forecast of 9.3 percent.
Despite the positive numbers posted by the hotel industry in the first half of the year, PKF-HR believes that the growth pace will moderate in the back half. “We attribute this modest slowdown to less favorable prior year comparisons and greater uncertainty about the strength of the economy,” says Jack Corgel, the Robert C. Baker professor of real estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration and senior advisor to PKF-HR. “Because market performance is getting better at an accelerated pace this year, we have trimmed our RevPAR estimates for 2013 to 6.2 percent, slightly below our previous estimate of 6.6 percent.”
To purchase a September 2012 Hotel Horizons® report, visit www.hotelhorizons.com.
